Friday, June 17, 2016

FLT IPO and Brexit

Frasers Logistics And Industrial Trust just closed its IPO on Thursday 12pm.

This is a pure-play Australian REIT which offers the following:
  1. Majority (60%) free-hold
  2. Relatively long WALE
  3. Properties are mostly young
However, there are the following considerations that we made as well:
  1. Exposure to forex risk - AUDSGD is relatively low currently
  2. Pricing of 2.9% above book value
  3. Australia's industry is currently at a peak level. Is this sustainable?
With the following considerations, we decided not to apply for this IPO as there are REITs in Singapore that offer good historical yields, good management, and at considerable discounts. It would seem wiser to invest in properties that can be seen and evaluated more accessibly, and at a discount, than something that is relatively more expensive, and harder to evaluate.

Moreover, as per my portfolio on SGXcafe, REITs currently form 13.12% of my portfolio, which is already comfortably within my planned allocation which can be found here. I have plans to diversify my REITs holding slightly in the near future, but I would think that adding a foreign REITs to my portfolio would complicate portfolio rebalancing.

The referendum for Brexit will be held next week on 23/6/16. With the numerous events recently, markets would likely be extremely volatile, and it would seem to be a good time for bargain hunting. It is unfortunate that I am already largely vested in with not much cash holdings to deploy, so I will likely be sitting this one out until the dust settle. 

Even though Brexit would probably cause turmoil in the market, I do believe that it is the best decision the UK can make for itself. 

It appears that EU is evolving gradually into a financial (mostly done?), political (partially done?) and military (early traces?) union. With such a system, UK with its numerous opt-outs would likely be playing a lesser role anyway. They would face the difficult choice of a closer union (and giving up of more sovereignty such as the pound), or to be tied to a union it has little to no influence over. 

The EU also appears to be inherently undemocratic. It is difficult to support a supranational institution that can determine the policies of a country without the ability to put it to the test with an election. Such an institution will grow corrupt and self-serving. As the adage goes, power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. With no one to answer to, the bureaucrats would only answer to each other, and would most definitely be looking out to their own interests as top priority. Initially, the policies drafted may benefit the constituent countries, but when the rot of corruption sets in, as it will undoubtedly do so, there will be no escape.

Nevertheless, I do suspect that the Bremain camp would likely prevail in the end as the undecided voters would likely vote for status quo, if we consider previous experience. 

Of course, the above is only my personal opinion. Feel free to disagree!

Next week would be a very interesting week!


Friday, June 10, 2016

Financial Goals

It's been quite a while since I've posted. My apologies!

In the last 2 weeks, I've made a few other purchases, namely, OCBC at 8.38, KSH at 0.550 and Keppel Corp at 5.3.

Subsequently, sold Keppel at 5.55, only to see it rise further to 5.9 on that very same day. Stuff happens.

So today, I shall reveal what is my financial goal for the future. This will be a conservative estimate with the following assumptions:
  1. Only my take home income is considered for salary, with no future increase
  2. Assuming current spending for the future*
  3. Assuming no major tragedies or necessary spending occurs
  4. Portfolio grows with 4% capital gains/dividends each year
  5. No inflation is accounted for (since salary does not increase as well)
*: This will be a difficulty in the future as my daughter grows up, as spending on her may increase significantly

Based on these estimates, I should manage to save $1,800 every month, which should make $21,600 every year.

With a current portfolio of about $80k, a simple calculation on excel shows:

Year
Portfolio
Dividends based on 4% of portfolio
Monthly Spending based on dividends
2016
$80,000.00
$3,200.00
$266.67
2017
$104,800.00
$4,192.00
$349.33
2018
$130,592.00
$5,223.68
$435.31
2019
$157,415.68
$6,296.63
$524.72
2020
$185,312.31
$7,412.49
$617.71
2021
$214,324.80
$8,572.99
$714.42
2022
$244,497.79
$9,779.91
$814.99
2023
$275,877.70
$11,035.11
$919.59
2024
$308,512.81
$12,340.51
$1,028.38
2025
$342,453.32
$13,698.13
$1,141.51
2026
$377,751.46
$15,110.06
$1,259.17
2027
$414,461.51
$16,578.46
$1,381.54
2028
$452,639.98
$18,105.60
$1,508.80
2029
$492,345.57
$19,693.82
$1,641.15
2030
$533,639.40
$21,345.58
$1,778.80
2031
$576,584.97
$23,063.40
$1,921.95
2032
$621,248.37
$24,849.93
$2,070.83
2033
$667,698.31
$26,707.93
$2,225.66
2034
$716,006.24
$28,640.25
$2,386.69
2035
$766,246.49
$30,649.86
$2,554.15
2036
$818,496.35
$32,739.85
$2,728.32
2037
$872,836.20
$34,913.45
$2,909.45
2038
$929,349.65
$37,173.99
$3,097.83
2039
$988,123.64
$39,524.95
$3,293.75
2040
$1,049,248.58
$41,969.94
$3,497.50
2041
$1,112,818.53
$44,512.74
$3,709.40
2042
$1,178,931.27
$47,157.25
$3,929.77
2043
$1,247,688.52
$49,907.54
$4,158.96
2044
$1,319,196.06
$52,767.84
$4,397.32
2045
$1,393,563.90
$55,742.56
$4,645.21
2046
$1,470,906.46
$58,836.26
$4,903.02
In other words, I should minimally work towards reaching a portfolio of $104.8k by the beginning of next year.

Target by 2017: $104.8k
Current Portfolio size: $81.4k
Percentage achieved: 5.645% (calculated by 1.4/24.8 * 100%)

Oh dear...

That being said, we have yet to save significantly for this year as we are moving towards our new apartment this year. Shifting to a new place is expensive business! We are still finishing up on payment for our contractors, have yet to purchase our fridge/washing machine etc, and have yet to complete payment for our mattress. All these are costing a bomb and placing a huge dent on our saving rate.

Hopefully, this is only considering the worst case scenario. Considering savings from my wife's income, plus income increment over the year, we should aim to hit and surpass our targets yearly. 

Will have to continue to work harder!